1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:07,760 Our first paper is entitled 21 Years of UFO Reports. 2 00:00:07,760 --> 00:00:13,960 It's by Professor Jay Allen Heineck, who is Chairman of the Department of Astronomy and 3 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:18,440 Director of the Lindenheimer Astronomical Research Center at Northwestern University. 4 00:00:18,440 --> 00:00:19,440 Professor Heineck. 5 00:00:19,440 --> 00:00:20,440 Thank you, Mr. Chairman. 6 00:00:20,440 --> 00:00:21,440 My role here today is that of reporter. 7 00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:31,440 To report to you on my score or so years of experience with UFO reports, note that I don't 8 00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:32,440 say UFOs. 9 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:39,040 I was asked in 1948 as an astronomer to review the UFO reports received by the Air Force to 10 00:00:39,040 --> 00:00:45,680 determine how many of them originated from misperceptions of astronomical objects. 11 00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:50,160 This consultancy continued across the years and gave me the chance to monitor the flow 12 00:00:50,160 --> 00:00:54,920 of UFO reports submitted to the Air Force and to observe the Air Force handling of the 13 00:00:54,920 --> 00:01:00,360 problem as first one, then another officer took charge of Project Blue Book. 14 00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:05,320 As a reporter of the UFO scene, I am reminded of the old victim of the reporter, who, what, 15 00:01:05,320 --> 00:01:07,320 where, when, and why. 16 00:01:07,320 --> 00:01:11,200 I will have no difficulty in dealing with the who, what, where, and when, for that simply 17 00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:16,080 means dealing with facts, particularly with the incontrovertible fact that UFO reports 18 00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:20,880 exist and that the time and location of the reported event is generally known, as well 19 00:01:20,880 --> 00:01:24,080 as the identity of the witnesses. 20 00:01:24,080 --> 00:01:25,920 When, how, will we get to the why? 21 00:01:25,920 --> 00:01:31,040 Well I shall leave that to the rest of the speakers, but I shall challenge their explanations 22 00:01:31,040 --> 00:01:37,840 if they, the speakers, are not conversant with the first four, the who, what, when, when. 23 00:01:37,840 --> 00:01:43,360 Over the course of years I have grown very weary of the pontifications by those who have 24 00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:46,720 not done fieldwork and are not really familiar with the facts. 25 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:52,080 Indeed I would like to say a word here about scientific methodology as it pertains to UFOs. 26 00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:56,240 I have discussed this at length with the noted Canadian philosopher of science Thomas Dowage 27 00:01:56,240 --> 00:02:00,960 and he has written, one of the most interesting facets of UFO question to me is its bearing 28 00:02:00,960 --> 00:02:04,000 on the problem of how science advances. 29 00:02:04,000 --> 00:02:07,440 Roughly I would say that a necessary condition of scientific advance is that allowance must 30 00:02:07,520 --> 00:02:15,040 be made for a. Genuinely new empirical observations and b. New explanation schemes including new 31 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:18,000 basic concepts and new laws. 32 00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:24,400 Gards then points out that any successful explanation scheme including 20th century physics acts 33 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:29,680 somewhat like an establishment and tends to resist admitting genuinely new empirical observations, 34 00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:34,320 particularly when they have not been generated within the framework of that explanation scheme. 35 00:02:34,320 --> 00:02:38,640 Aspirin seems to reluctance to admit meteorites, fossils, the circulation of blood, 36 00:02:38,640 --> 00:02:42,800 and in our times all lightning. History is repeat with such examples. 37 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:47,600 Or if the establishment does quickly accept such new observations it tends to assimilate them into 38 00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:52,400 the going framework. Aspirin seems to attempt to admit the existence of meteorites as stones 39 00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:58,000 that had been struck by lightning, thus implying that there was nothing really new in the observations. 40 00:02:58,320 --> 00:03:04,960 Hence, Gouge concludes, the present establishment view of that UFO phenomena are either not really 41 00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:10,720 scientific data at all, or at any rate not data for physicists, or else are nothing but 42 00:03:10,720 --> 00:03:17,440 misperceptions of familiar objects, events, etc. To take this approach is surely to reject 43 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:20,480 a necessary condition of scientific advance, Gouge concludes. 44 00:03:22,480 --> 00:03:27,360 Now one can never know whether UFO reports represent genuinely new empirical observations, 45 00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:32,000 or if one commits the type of logical fallacies strikingly demonstrated in the following 46 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:36,480 Air Force analysis of a radar visual UFO report from Curtin Air Force Base. 47 00:03:37,600 --> 00:03:41,920 Two controlled tower personnel reported that 11 p.m. an object which looked to them through 48 00:03:41,920 --> 00:03:46,400 binoculars, like a lighted upended automobile, came to within 200 feet of the ground when it 49 00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:51,280 disappeared behind a fence in a highly restricted area. It then rose above the very high angular 50 00:03:51,280 --> 00:03:56,000 rate and disappeared. It was observed visually for about six minutes, about half of that time 51 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:59,920 through binoculars, its trajectory tracked both visually and in part by radar. 52 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:05,840 The Air Force described this site into aircraft, but here is what the officer who investigated 53 00:04:05,840 --> 00:04:11,200 the case reported. Quote, The two sources are Airways Operations Specialists with a total of 54 00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:15,120 23 years experience. Both were undue in the control tower at Curtin Air Force Base when the 55 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:20,560 site was made. Both appeared to be mature and well-poised individuals, apparently well above 56 00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:24,720 average intelligence, and temperamentally well qualified for the demanding requirements of 57 00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:29,360 control tower operators. Although completely cooperative and willing to answer any question, 58 00:04:29,920 --> 00:04:34,720 both sources appear to be slightly embarrassed that they could not identify or offer an explanation 59 00:04:34,720 --> 00:04:39,360 of the object which they are unshakably convinced they saw. In the opinion of the interviewer, 60 00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:42,240 both sources are considered completely competent and reliable. 61 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:47,760 Haji Gurboud gave the following reasons for calling the object an ordinary aircraft. 62 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:52,480 One, the observers are considered competent and reliable sources, 63 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:57,440 and in the opinion of the interviewer actually saw an object they could not identify. 64 00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:02,400 Two, the object was tracked on a radar scope by a competent operator. 65 00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:10,560 Three, the object does not meet identification criteria for any other phenomenon. So the 66 00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:14,560 witnesses were solid, the radar operator competent, and the object unidentified was 67 00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:17,360 in the other phenomenon, and therefore the object had to be an aircraft. 68 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:25,840 Clearly, if such reasoning is applied to all UFO reports, we can hardly expect to find out whether 69 00:05:25,840 --> 00:05:31,600 any genuinely new empirical observations exist to be explained. Shradinger, Father of Quantum 70 00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:38,720 Mechanics, wrote, The first requirement of a scientist is that he be curious. He must be 71 00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:45,280 capable of being astonished and eager to find out. Perhaps he should have added and be ready to 72 00:05:45,280 --> 00:05:51,120 examine data even when presented in a bewildering and confusing form. There is much in the UFO 73 00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:56,560 problem to be astonished about and much to be confused about too. It is quite understandable 74 00:05:56,560 --> 00:06:02,240 how such confusion has arisen. Over the past 20 years, I have had such a sufficiency of experience 75 00:06:02,240 --> 00:06:08,640 with crackpots, visionaries, religious fanatics, that I hardly need to be further reminded of 76 00:06:08,640 --> 00:06:13,840 people who espouse the idea of UFOs as visitors from outer space for their own peculiar purposes. 77 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:20,240 You will note that I say, espouse the idea of not making UFO reports. Very rarely do members of 78 00:06:20,240 --> 00:06:25,200 the lunatic frames make UFO reports. There are many reasons for this, but primarily, it is 79 00:06:25,200 --> 00:06:30,080 simply that they are quite incapable of composing an articulate, factual, and objective report. 80 00:06:31,200 --> 00:06:35,680 In addition to being fully aware of the cultists and the manner in which they muddy the waters, 81 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:42,000 even though they don't generate UFO sightings, I am also quite aware of the widespread ignorance 82 00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:46,720 of many people about astronomical objects, high-outdoor balloons, special air missions, 83 00:06:46,720 --> 00:06:51,360 mirages, special meteorological effects, and of their willingness to ascribe the viewing 84 00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:58,240 of such to the presence of something mysterious. These people, as contrasted to the crackpots, 85 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:02,160 are far more of a factor in the UFO problem because they do generate reports, 86 00:07:02,720 --> 00:07:08,080 which represent a high noise level, so high in fact that many who have not looked carefully into 87 00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:12,480 the matter are quite satisfied that all UFO reports stem from such misperceptions. 88 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:17,520 The facts in the case, however, are that it is relatively simple for an experienced 89 00:07:17,520 --> 00:07:22,400 investigator to sort out quickly and eliminate, and eliminate, and quickly eliminate, 90 00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:27,360 nearly all of the misperception cases. It is a pity that people so often are not 91 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:33,040 informed, objective, and accurate reporters. I have been looking at UFO reports since 1948, 92 00:07:34,000 --> 00:07:40,480 and I am nauseatingly familiar with UFO reports spawned by Venus, twinkling stars, aircraft, 93 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:47,440 etc. Some 18 years before the Condon family was formed, I was already aware that the great majority 94 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:53,280 of UFO reports were indeed nothing more than misperceptions by the uninformed. 95 00:07:55,360 --> 00:07:59,440 Such reports, of course, must be deleted before any serious study of the UFO question can begin. 96 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:05,040 Let it be clearly underlined that from this moment on I am speaking only of UFO reports 97 00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:10,960 which remain unexplained by trained investigators. Then and only then are we truly dealing with 98 00:08:10,960 --> 00:08:17,120 something that is unidentified, and unidentified by people capable of making an identification. 99 00:08:17,920 --> 00:08:24,320 In short, a UFO report must pass through a severe filtering process before it qualifies as worthy 100 00:08:24,320 --> 00:08:30,240 material of a scientific study. The objective of which is to determine whether any genuinely new 101 00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:36,720 empirical observations exist, whether there truly is a UFO phenomenon. Only those reports 102 00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:44,160 with survived running of this gauntlet can qualify. You may immediately object. Aren't you just 103 00:08:44,160 --> 00:08:48,480 rejecting everything but the tail end of the distribution curve of human reactions to visual 104 00:08:48,480 --> 00:08:54,000 stimuli? Well, we can hold that assumption that we are dealing with the Begarry's or human perception 105 00:08:54,640 --> 00:08:59,360 only if we believe that we deal with a homogeneous set of observations. That is, the tail of 106 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:05,280 distribution curve must belong to the same universe or sample of data. Otherwise, it is like examining 107 00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:11,520 the distribution curve of the sizes of oranges and trying to fit watermelons onto the curve. 108 00:09:12,320 --> 00:09:19,680 Let us define the UFO phenomenon, the existence of which we wish to determine or deny, as that 109 00:09:19,680 --> 00:09:24,880 phenomenon, described by the contents of reports of observations of lights or objects in the air, 110 00:09:24,880 --> 00:09:30,480 or near to or on the ground, whose presence, trajectories, and general character are not 111 00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:36,640 explainable in verifiable physical terms, even after intensive study. The Condon Report 112 00:09:37,520 --> 00:09:43,200 produces us with many examples. For years, I strongly resisted accepting the idea that a 113 00:09:44,160 --> 00:09:52,320 genuine UFO phenomenon might exist. As my review of UFO reports continued, and as they grew in 114 00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:58,800 number to be of statistical significance, I became increasingly aware that the phenomenon of UFO 115 00:09:58,800 --> 00:10:04,800 reports not only persisted in this country, but in many areas over the world, and that it didn't 116 00:10:04,880 --> 00:10:11,120 disappear as one might expect a craze or a fad to disappear. And it began to concern me that if 117 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:18,640 there were some worldwide compulsion to report strange things, why this particular subset of 118 00:10:18,640 --> 00:10:23,600 strange reports out of an infinite universe of possible strange reports? The degree of 119 00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:29,200 strangeness is certainly one dimension of a filtered UFO report. The higher the strangeness 120 00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:34,000 index, the more information elements which defy explanation in ordinary physical terms, 121 00:10:34,000 --> 00:10:39,760 the report contains. The other dimension, or coordinate, is the probability that the report 122 00:10:39,760 --> 00:10:45,440 refers to a real event. In short, did the strange thing that defy explanation in normal physical 123 00:10:45,440 --> 00:10:50,800 terms really happen? What is the probability that the witness is described in an actual event 124 00:10:50,800 --> 00:10:55,840 of high strangeness? This represents a different evaluation, not of the report this time, 125 00:10:55,840 --> 00:11:01,440 but of the witnesses, and involves different criteria. Criteria have used in determining 126 00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:06,000 the coordinates of points to be included in what you might call the strangeness probability 127 00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:11,920 diagram are these. For strangeness, how many individual items or information bits does the 128 00:11:11,920 --> 00:11:17,600 report contain which demand explanation? And how difficult is it to explain them on the assumption 129 00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:24,400 that the event occurred? For probability, the criteria, integrating over several witnesses, 130 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:29,760 what is their collective objectivity? How do they respond to tests of ability to gauge 131 00:11:29,760 --> 00:11:33,600 angular sizes and angular speed? What is the condition of their eyesight? What are their 132 00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:37,280 medical histories? What technical training have they had? What is their general reputation in 133 00:11:37,280 --> 00:11:42,160 community? What is their reputation for publicity seeking, for veracity? What is their occupation 134 00:11:42,160 --> 00:11:46,880 and how much responsibility does it involve? The one very important rule that I always impose is that 135 00:11:47,920 --> 00:11:55,760 no reports from single witnesses ever get higher than half-scale credibility or probability. 136 00:11:56,560 --> 00:12:00,640 Now, if one plots the strangeness of a report against the credibility of the witnesses or 137 00:12:00,640 --> 00:12:06,000 against essentially the same thing, the probability that the event happened more or less as stated, 138 00:12:06,640 --> 00:12:10,480 one obtains an interesting scatter diagram which might be called the strangeness probability 139 00:12:10,480 --> 00:12:14,560 diagram or sigma pi diagram for short. If we have a slide, I can show that. 140 00:12:14,880 --> 00:12:24,560 I guess I caught him a little unaware of that. Now, all points spotted represent 141 00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:31,040 UFO reports that have passed through the misperception and hoax filter. Clearly, the most 142 00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:35,840 provocative and potentially scientifically important are UFO reports or those that contain 143 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:41,680 many strange information elements and have a high probability rating. Reports for which the witnesses 144 00:12:41,680 --> 00:12:45,840 were of such a caliber and the circumstances surrounding the reported event were of such as 145 00:12:45,840 --> 00:12:52,000 to make them virtually impossible to discount the reported event. Examples of strange information 146 00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:58,080 bits are craft descriptions, reported violations of inertial laws, ability to affect animals, 147 00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:02,880 to interfere with automobile ignition systems, and to leave visible marks on land and uncultivated 148 00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:13,920 fields. The content of the report includes several such cases. Of course, right off the bat, 149 00:13:13,920 --> 00:13:19,200 this is my own subjective evaluation of somewhat more than 100 cases, 150 00:13:20,960 --> 00:13:25,440 one I could have chosen many others, but this seems to be a representative group. 151 00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:32,560 The strangeness in the abscissa, the probability or credibility, the ordinate, 152 00:13:34,080 --> 00:13:42,080 the symbols will be explained very shortly. In my own long experience in personal contact with 153 00:13:42,080 --> 00:13:47,680 witnesses, one paramount thing has impressed me above all, and that is that those witnesses who 154 00:13:47,680 --> 00:13:54,240 generate high sigma pi reports, those would be more in the tendy in the upper right hand 155 00:13:54,960 --> 00:14:01,120 general area, that those people who generate these reports are all trying to describe an event 156 00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:05,440 for the description of which they have an entirely inadequate vocabulary, much as an 157 00:14:05,440 --> 00:14:09,920 aborigine would lack a vocabulary to describe a supersonic jet or a nuclear submarine. 158 00:14:10,720 --> 00:14:17,200 Whatever else can be said of the UFO phenomenon, it represents for the witness an undoubted event, 159 00:14:17,200 --> 00:14:22,720 and an event for which it is totally unprepared. The majority of such witnesses, contrary to popular 160 00:14:22,720 --> 00:14:28,000 belief, were originally highly skeptical about UFOs. Suddenly they had an experience 161 00:14:28,000 --> 00:14:32,720 which profoundly affected them sometimes traumatically. Speaking again from years of 162 00:14:32,720 --> 00:14:37,120 experience with witnesses, I can say that faced with the experience of the UFO event, 163 00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:41,040 the witnesses are generally perplexed and uncertain as to what to do about it. 164 00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:45,520 Invariably they attempt to explain it in ordinary terms first and fail. 165 00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:50,800 Curiosity overwhelms them that they know only too well that they will be targeted for ridicule 166 00:14:50,800 --> 00:14:54,480 if they report, whereas they confess they have often in the past ridiculed others. 167 00:14:55,440 --> 00:14:59,920 Generally they confide only in their own family if at all, and they often prefer to remain silent. 168 00:14:59,920 --> 00:15:02,880 Sometimes they will finally report observations years after they occur. 169 00:15:03,760 --> 00:15:09,040 Any serious investigator is aware that the reservoir of latent reports must exist. 170 00:15:10,400 --> 00:15:15,120 Not only has the gallop hold so indicated, but I frequently tried to experiment of asking for 171 00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:21,440 a show of hands of those who either themselves or their close friends had a puzzling UFO experience. 172 00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:26,560 I generally find that more than 10% of the audience will raise a hand, 173 00:15:27,360 --> 00:15:32,560 but when I ask for hands of all those who reported the event in some official manner, 174 00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:38,400 I find virtually no hands raised. Judging from this and other personal observations I would 175 00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:44,240 estimate that for every officially reported UFO sighting, there exist many dozens that have gone 176 00:15:44,240 --> 00:15:52,880 unrecorded. I believe that as scientists we should be astonished that high Sigma Pi reports even exist. 177 00:15:53,920 --> 00:15:59,520 What does a serious person holding a valued reputation stand to gain by making such a report? 178 00:15:59,520 --> 00:16:03,280 Why do people go to the trouble of filling out questionnaires, of subjecting themselves to 179 00:16:03,280 --> 00:16:09,040 sometimes hostile inquiry, and of being the target of unpleasant attention? The reason appears to be 180 00:16:09,040 --> 00:16:13,760 twofold. Witnesses have told me that they had not intended to say anything about their experience, 181 00:16:13,760 --> 00:16:18,400 but they felt that it might be of importance to the government or to science, and felt that 182 00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:24,240 their duty to report. The second reason is curiosity. They want to know whether anyone else 183 00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:30,080 experienced the same event, and whether the event has a rational explanation. They are visibly reassured 184 00:16:30,080 --> 00:16:35,200 when I tell them it could be the case, that their sighting fits a pattern and resembles other reported 185 00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:42,880 sightings from various parts of the world. What about patterns of UFO reports? Clearly, 186 00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:48,560 if each UFO report represents a unique happening, the UFO is not immediately able to scientific study. 187 00:16:50,720 --> 00:16:55,520 Classification of UFO reports, however, must be free of any preconceived ideas as to their nature 188 00:16:55,520 --> 00:17:00,960 and cause. Thus the classification must be observational. It should be akin to the state of 189 00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:05,840 the classification of stellar spectra in the days before we had a theory of stellar spectra, 190 00:17:05,840 --> 00:17:11,760 or somewhat like the classification of galaxies is today. I have adopted a simple classification 191 00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:16,080 system based solely on the manner of observation. There seem to be four basic ways in which the 192 00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:21,040 UFO presents itself, so to speak, for human observation. One is not internal lights, the 193 00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:25,600 objects to which the lights are presumably attached, being generally barely at all discernible. 194 00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:32,400 Two is daytime discs. When the UFO generally, but not necessarily, appears as a disc or oval. 195 00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:39,440 Three is close encounters during day or night. These are reported sightings made at ranges 196 00:17:39,440 --> 00:17:45,600 less than 1,000 feet, and often accompanied by reported physical effects on the land, on 197 00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:52,160 plants and animals, and occasionally on humans. And four, radar UFOs, a special subset of which 198 00:17:52,160 --> 00:17:57,680 is the radar visual observation, an example of which I gave earlier. There is no attempt in 199 00:17:57,680 --> 00:18:02,400 this observation classification to be mutually exclusive. Clearly, not internal light might be 200 00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:08,800 a day like this in the daytime and so on. The not internal light report has the least information 201 00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:14,480 elements and thus allows strange index. The not internal light are the stars, 202 00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:24,720 or asterisks, in the diagram. The not internal light can be defined as a light or combination 203 00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:29,840 of lights whose kinematic behavior passes through the filter, that is, it cannot be logically 204 00:18:29,840 --> 00:18:34,320 ascribed to balloons, aircraft, meteors, planets, satellites, satellite, re-entries, or missiles. 205 00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:38,800 The experienced investigator generally has no difficulty with the screening process here. 206 00:18:39,760 --> 00:18:44,480 Of course, should a UFO choose to masquerade as a hot air balloon or a photographic night 207 00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:50,000 air exercise, there is no easy way of differentiation, at least as long as we are limited to observing 208 00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:56,640 from the ground. If we had immediate reaction capabilities and could scramble an interceptor, 209 00:18:56,640 --> 00:19:01,840 we could clear the matter up quickly. Or perhaps we would experience what has often been reported, 210 00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:06,400 you'll notice in all these cases I'm saying reported because I'm dealing with reports and 211 00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:12,560 what was reported to have happened and I do not want to fall in the trap of saying it happened, 212 00:19:12,560 --> 00:19:17,200 it was always what was reported to have happened. Or perhaps we would experience what has often 213 00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:22,240 been reported in the past 20 years as the intercepting plane approaches the light in question. 214 00:19:22,240 --> 00:19:27,200 The light either suddenly goes out or seems to take off and soon outdistance the investigator. 215 00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:32,400 As an example of a nocturnal light, we have a case I investigate personally involving five 216 00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:38,160 witnesses, the senior witness being the longtime associate director of a common laboratory at MIT. 217 00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:43,200 The nocturnal light was first sighted by his son who had been out airing the dorms. 218 00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:47,680 He came bounding into the house flying as a flying saucer outside. The senior observer 219 00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:51,680 picked up a pair of binoculars on his way out. He told me that he didn't expect to see anything 220 00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:56,400 unusual, but was going out to see what the commotion was all about. He was engrossed by what he saw, 221 00:19:56,400 --> 00:20:00,560 the nature of the light, its motions, its hovering, and its departure. He described the 222 00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:04,080 light as having a high color temperature, although essentially a point source, 223 00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:09,920 sceptending less than a minute of arc. The five observers were fortunately able to compare it 224 00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:16,880 to an airliner and a helicopter, both of which passed by during an observation interval, 225 00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:21,520 and neither the motions nor lights of these craft bore any resemblance to those of the UFO. 226 00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:26,000 Or I should say the reported UFO. The trajectory of the object was 227 00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:29,600 pilot against the framework of branches of the branches of a denuded tree. 228 00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:34,400 This observer was a good one, and in his report included the condition of his eyes and that of 229 00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:38,640 the members of his family. The adult observers were both far-sighted, and the senior observer 230 00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:43,840 wore glasses only for reading. Incidentally, all my attempts at scientific consulting to the 231 00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:49,600 Air Force to mount a serious investigation of this case came to naught. The Blue Book evaluation 232 00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:55,280 is, however, unidentified. But somehow the word unidentified is not, for them, a challenge to 233 00:20:55,280 --> 00:21:01,280 inquiry. It has been classified as unidentified, and therefore the case is solved. It has been 234 00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:10,240 identified as unidentified. So certain was the Air Force, at least publicly, that all UFO reports 235 00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:15,680 must represent normal things, that they saw no point to serious investigation. In most of the 236 00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:20,400 time that I acted as consultant to the Air Force, I repeatedly urged immediate reaction capability 237 00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:25,680 and proper scientific investigation was no avail. The next classification 238 00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:30,160 category is the Daylight Disc. Daylight Disc are the circles, the open circles. 239 00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:36,160 The prototype report runs something like this in its hundreds. I was driving along in their 240 00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:40,960 crossover in front of me, a shiny metallic disc. It seemed about 500 to 1,000 feet above the road. 241 00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:44,560 It came down very close to the ground, stopped and hovered with a wobbling motion, then took off 242 00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:48,560 at incredible speeds, straight up, and was gone in a few seconds. There was no noise. 243 00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:53,920 This Daylight category, quite understandably, has more photographs to support it than all 244 00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:58,240 the others put together. An example is the McMillanville-Oregon case, which the 245 00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:04,800 Continental Portalists has unsolved. But I understand, by private conversation with Dr. Hartman, 246 00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:13,920 that the analysis was not entirely complete, and the McMillanville-Oregon case may 247 00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:19,840 yet turn out to be a hoax. A photographic Daylight Disc case was reported by three 248 00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:25,040 prospectors in the Bush country near Calgary, Alberta. I personally investigated this terrain 249 00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:29,520 by flying over it in a small plane. I investigated the witnesses, the negatives, and the camera. 250 00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:34,720 All this fussed the sworn affidavit of the principal witness leads me to put this 251 00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:39,680 into the class of a good Daylight Disc. But as with so many other cases, 252 00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:46,080 one is finally impaled by uncertainty. Many photographs have been published, 253 00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:50,240 some are patent hopes, but most have never been investigated sufficiently to rule out 254 00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:56,880 the very sophisticated hopes. Proper interrogation, tracing of the processing history of the negative, 255 00:22:56,880 --> 00:23:00,880 microscopic and microphotometric examination of the negative, plus proper psychological 256 00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:05,840 testing of the witnesses to the taking of the photograph should serve to rule out all but 257 00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:10,160 the most highly sophisticated, expensive, and elaborately contrived hopes. 258 00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:14,800 Now, in any one case, it is clearly impossible to state unequivocally that a photo of a Daylight 259 00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:20,480 Disc is genuine. But I would submit that 25 set separate photographic cases, each subjected 260 00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:26,080 to exhaustive tests, would allow us to approach certainty asymptotically, so that we could say 261 00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:31,760 that the probability of a hoax in all 25 cases was vanishingly small. Even so, this would not 262 00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:36,960 prove the existence of truly strange flying objects, but it should prove, provide sufficient 263 00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:42,000 justification for the proper attention to the phenomenon by the scientific world. And let me 264 00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:48,240 remind you that that is all I have ever advocated, that the subject of UFO reports is worthy of serious 265 00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:54,720 scientific attention. Inherent in the sheaves of UFO reports, there may well-being many doctoral 266 00:23:54,720 --> 00:24:00,720 dissertations for physicist, sociologist, and psychologist alike. The problem is interdisciplinary, 267 00:24:01,360 --> 00:24:05,200 which because of the magic of that word ought to get some of you some good grants. 268 00:24:07,120 --> 00:24:14,000 The third category of UFO reports, The Close Encounter, offers by far the greatest potential 269 00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:20,720 for scientific study. It is here that the hypothesis of simple misperception fails 270 00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:26,960 early in explaining reports of craft landing 100 feet away, a visible march left on the ground, 271 00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:31,120 animals and people visually affected, and the automobile temporarily stopped on the road. 272 00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:37,680 Here we must say here that the witnesses were severely mentally unbalanced, or that something 273 00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:42,880 most interesting actually happened. I divide the close encounter case into three subdivisions. 274 00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:51,440 The close encounter appearing simple, which is up here in the seas, close encounter, and you see 275 00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:56,080 the close encounter gives you more information bits, and hence the strangeness index goes up. 276 00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:04,160 The close encounter with physical effects, those are the peas, but physical effects, and finally 277 00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:08,880 the close encounter in which humanoids are occupants enter the picture. It is this latter 278 00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:13,440 subgroup, which of course is the highest strangeness index, and flakens away all but the most hardy 279 00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:18,640 investigators. Since my role here is that of reporter, I would be neither a good reporter 280 00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:24,400 nor scientist, where I could deliberately reject data. There are now on record some 1,200 reports 281 00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:30,000 of close encounters, nearly half of which involve reported craft occupants. Reports of 282 00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:34,080 occupants have been with us for years, but there are only a few in the Air Force files, 283 00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:38,800 for generally blue books summarily and without investigation, consign such reports to the 284 00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:44,400 psychological, which is their term for crackpot. A prototype of the close encounter per se is 285 00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:48,560 that of the witnesses driving along a lonely road when the driver spies a strange glare in his rear 286 00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:52,960 view mirror. He becomes frightened, increases his speed to sometimes go at 100 miles an hour, 287 00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:57,920 trying to out distance the UFO, but cannot. He stops the car and the witnesses try to take cover. 288 00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:00,800 Shortly the light goes away, rising and vanishing quickly in the distance. 289 00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:07,200 One can charge that such witnesses were mentally unbalanced. I have found it most difficult 290 00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:13,040 to try saying that to their faces, especially when I discovered that the witnesses were 291 00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:16,160 respected members of their communities and held responsible positions, 292 00:26:17,120 --> 00:26:22,800 which is going to say they're crazy and prepared to run. The close encounter with physical effects 293 00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:27,600 interest me the most, since the reported effects on animal, vegetable and mineral 294 00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:32,160 are potentially measurable. For instance, there are more than 100 reports on record 295 00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:38,160 of UFOs that reportedly cause car ignition failures. The all too typical case runs something like this. 296 00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:43,040 Suddenly as it from nowhere, bright light appears. As it stops to hover over the car, 297 00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:48,160 the car lights dim or fail, and the engine dies, the radio either stops and has a lot of static 298 00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:53,280 on it, and the windshield wipers stop. Often occupants of the car report feeling hot and 299 00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:57,840 bitter. After a few minutes, the apparition leaves and the car returns to normal operation, 300 00:26:57,840 --> 00:27:05,120 but the witnesses often do not. Attempts to explain such cases as the misperception of the moon 301 00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:11,200 and the inadvertent killing of the engine by an excited witness doesn't wash. The moon doesn't 302 00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:17,520 stop windshield wipers on a rainy night, nor does the killing of the engine dim the lights, 303 00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:25,680 or produce static on the radio. Witnesses of such encounters do not ready to lend themselves to 304 00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:31,280 interrogation. Often they tell no one for days. Eventually, a serious UFO investigator comes to 305 00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:36,480 hear about it and then the story unfolds. When they do unwisely tell their story openly, their lives 306 00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:43,200 are invariably made miserable by ridicule. Let us consider the probabilities in car failure cases, 307 00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:48,000 in reported car failure cases. On a cross-country trip, we occasionally come across a car disabled 308 00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:53,200 by the roadside as hood up, waiting for the repairman or the tow truck. We should regard it as odd, 309 00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:57,600 and of low probability, where the car de-healed itself, so to speak, and after a few minutes 310 00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:02,800 proceed as if nothing had happened. Now, however, if we impose the further condition that the event 311 00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:07,760 must be accompanied by a very bright unexplained light which covers over the car, then I submit that 312 00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:12,800 such probabilities are extremely small, and when we deal not with two or three such cases, but many 313 00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:18,960 dozens, we are driven, I at least, in driven to the conclusion that something most extraordinary 314 00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:24,720 happened either physical or psychological. If we have in these cases what the Dowage calls 315 00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:30,720 genuinely new empirical observations requiring new explanation schemes, then we can anticipate not 316 00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:35,040 merely a scientific breakthrough but one enormous quantum jump which will make the transition from 317 00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:39,840 classical physics to modern physics seem like child's play. But it may not be around the corner. 318 00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:43,440 We, in the 20th century, may be as far away from the solution of the UFO problem 319 00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:48,880 as 19th century physicists were from an interpretation of the Aurora Borealis. 320 00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:54,640 It is under those circumstances still incumbent upon us as scientists to document and study the 321 00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:59,200 phenomenon to the best of our ability. But at present, however, the absence of continued 322 00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:05,520 scientific study of the phenomenon still leaves it unclear as to whether genuinely new empirical 323 00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:11,440 observations exist. Yet even the Conner report left me to explain nearly a quarter of the cases 324 00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:17,120 examined. The fourth observational category contains those UFO reports involving radar. 325 00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:25,120 Those are the R's in the... There are many reports in this category from responsible persons, pilots 326 00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:29,280 and control tower operators and so forth. I have paid little attention personally to radar cases 327 00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:34,320 since I am no radar expert, and the radar expert at Bluebook invariably described all radar cases 328 00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:40,560 to malfunction or anomalous propagation. Sometimes I felt on the ground that since UFOs didn't exist, 329 00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:44,800 there could be no possible other solution. The Conner report, however, contains the following 330 00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:49,600 remark about one sense case, quote, this must remain as one of the most puzzling radar cases on 331 00:29:49,600 --> 00:29:53,840 record and no one conclusion is possible at this time. It seems inconceivable that an anomalous 332 00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:57,600 propagation echo would behave in the manner described, even if anomalous propagation had been 333 00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:03,920 likely at a time. Close quote. Radar visual cases offer more scope for study. The Lake and Heath 334 00:30:03,920 --> 00:30:10,240 case, studied by the Conner family, contains unknown, un-known, remains unknown. With the remark, 335 00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:14,800 quote, in summary, this is the most puzzling and unusual case in the radar visual file. 336 00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:20,640 The apparently rational, intelligent behavior of the UFO suggests a mechanical device of unknown 337 00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:26,320 origin as the most probable explanation to say it. However, in view of the inevitable fallibility 338 00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:31,440 of witnesses, more conventional explanations of the report cannot be entirely ruled out. Close quote. 339 00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:36,640 In truth, as a matter of fact, if one reads the body of the Conner report carefully, not just 340 00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:42,320 the press summary, one finds, at least I find, that constitutes a body's good case for the scientific 341 00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:48,640 study of UFOs, as I feel would have been possible by any group, not initially conversion to the 342 00:30:48,640 --> 00:30:53,920 subject and having limited time and funds. Some of you may be surprised to learn that a 343 00:30:54,000 --> 00:31:00,880 considerable body of excellent UFO reports exists. I think we can toss the slide now. 344 00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:08,720 We have lights, please. We have really here the crux of the problem. Neither you, as informed, 345 00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:15,360 active scientists nor the public, have access to this information. Unfortunately, you, who may wish 346 00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:21,360 to be informed about UFOs, must get your information in the intellectual alleys, where it is written, 347 00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:25,840 like forbidden words, on the back fences of literature, the pulp magazines, the sensation 348 00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:32,640 adventure mystery, and sex magazines. There is in this country not one scientific journal in which 349 00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:38,800 I could publish a well-documented UFO case. Yet a recent bibliography of UFO literature of all 350 00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:44,480 and some besides Randolph-Onderpages, it would appear that the UFO has become a problem for the 351 00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:50,640 librarian, sooner than it has for the scientist. Consider to the plight of a serious UFO witness. 352 00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:54,720 I know they exist because I've interviewed several hundred. Where can they go to report? 353 00:31:55,520 --> 00:32:00,000 Only the most 90 would have reported to the Air Force during the last years of global. 354 00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:06,080 To report to the local police is scarcely better. Many witnesses are told by the ridicule they met 355 00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:12,640 when they took that path. Besides, I've seen many police blotters. UFO reports are entered as complaints. 356 00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:19,920 The witness, if he wishes to report, must seek out the relatively few persons 357 00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:26,960 or organizations which will lend a sympathetic ear. My own mail brings me many high-speed and high-key 358 00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:31,280 reports, generally a request for anonymity, but I have neither time nor the funds to make proper 359 00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:36,160 investigation. As I look back over the past 21 years' association with the UFO problem, 360 00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:40,160 I know that things like your climate today is much better for taking a good look at it 361 00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:44,640 than it was even a few years ago. This symposium is itself an example. It would have been impossible 362 00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:50,160 than how it even a year or two ago. In fact, it was impossible to hold it last year. And had I, 363 00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:54,000 years ago, when I realized the nature of some of the reports in the Air Force files, 364 00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:57,760 attempted to call for a major investigation, I would simply have been labeled a nut, 365 00:32:57,760 --> 00:33:04,160 and would therefore have lost all possible future effectiveness. In summary, the results of my 21 366 00:33:04,160 --> 00:33:12,320 years of monitoring of UFO reports is, 1. Reports of UFO observations exist after the deletion of 367 00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:18,720 the pronouncements of crackpots, visionaries, and religious fanatics. 2. A large number of UFO 368 00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:24,160 reports are readily identifiable by trained investigators as misperceptions of known objects 369 00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:33,600 and events, and I should add their hoaxes also. And obvious mental disturbance. 3. A small residue 370 00:33:33,600 --> 00:33:40,880 of UFO reports are not so identifiable. These, a, are widely scattered over the earth and come from 371 00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:47,520 such widely separated places as Northern Canada, Australia, South America, and Antarctica. B, 372 00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:52,000 are made by competent, responsible, psychologically normal people, that is, credible witnesses. 373 00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:59,760 C, contain descriptive terms which collectively do not specify any known physical event, object, 374 00:33:59,840 --> 00:34:04,400 or process, and which do not specify any known psychological event or process. 375 00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:14,800 At least not to me, since I cannot speak for the psychologist then. D, resist translation into 376 00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:19,840 terms that do apply to known physical and or psychological events, objects, processes, and 377 00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:26,000 center. That is, as Gaud's points out, translation would offer the meaning of the original report, 378 00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:31,600 and hence effectively violate the methodological criteria governing the advance of science, 379 00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:37,120 which as he states are, 1. It must be possible for new observational data to occur, 380 00:34:37,120 --> 00:34:41,920 that is, the existing conceptual framework of science, or the attitudes of scientists, 381 00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:48,480 must not rule out such new data a priori. 2. That the existing conceptual framework 382 00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:52,880 must allow new concepts, principles, laws, etc., to be formulated to interpret and 383 00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:57,920 explain the new observational data. 3. Finally, may I say that although I know 384 00:34:57,920 --> 00:35:03,280 of no hypothesis that adequately covers the mountain's evidence, this should not, 385 00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:07,680 nor must not deter us from following the advice of Schradinger to be curious, 386 00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:18,800 capable of being astonished, and eager to find out. Thank you.